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Ep. 468 - Fireside Chat w/ Lateriser

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FML FPL - Fantasy Premier League Podcast


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Ep. 468 of FML FPL - Fantasy Premier League Podcast features Walsh and Lateriser discussing strategic nuances for the upcoming FPL season, focusing on player selections, the impact of rule changes, and the psychological aspects of managing Fantasy teams, aiming for optimal performance without succumbing to community pressure.

Favorite Quote from the Author

if things are obvious do it and if things are not obvious question it and don't necessarily to be different for the sake of being different

💨 tl;dr

Walsh and Lateriser discuss their FPL strategies for the upcoming season, emphasizing gut instincts over templates, early wildcard usage, and balancing premium and budget players. They stress the importance of enjoying the game and making informed decisions.

💡 Key Ideas

  • Walsh and Lateriser (LR) have an annual tradition of catching up before game week 1 of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season.
  • LR is a dedicated listener of the FML FPL podcast and a Manchester United fan.
  • Both Walsh and LR had a strong second half of the last FPL season by deviating from popular picks and playing their own game.
  • Strategies discussed include captaining Haaland less, a relaxed approach, informed decisions, and learning from past mistakes.
  • Emphasized the importance of having an eighth attacker and the impact of the new five-sub rule on team strategy.
  • Early wildcard usage (around game weeks 4-6) is favored for stability and avoiding gaps with well-performing teams.
  • Key defender choices include Poro and premium defenders like Trent or Guardiol; clean sheets are highly valued.
  • Considerations about Forest’s defense, goalkeeper options, and balancing premium and budget players.
  • Early commitment to strategies like bench boost and triple captaincy to gain an edge.
  • Player minutes and performance uncertainty, especially with new managers and formations at Liverpool, Chelsea, and Brighton.
  • Emphasis on starting with reliable picks and avoiding low-percentage players early in the season.
  • Personal preferences and enjoyment of the game play a significant role in decision-making.
  • The speaker aims for high personal goals in FPL and enjoys a weekly podcast derived from frequent football discussions.

🎓 Lessons Learnt

  • Trust your instincts over templates: Relying too heavily on a preset template can backfire. Trust your gut, especially early in the season.

  • Be cautious with early hits: Avoid making early transfers based on one good performance. Consistency is key.

  • Relax and enjoy the game: Playing without pressure can lead to better performance. Enjoy the process rather than stressing over it.

  • Captain strategically: Avoid captaining flat-track bullies like Haaland in tough fixtures. Optimize points by targeting favorable matchups.

  • Invest in reliable players: Choose players who are guaranteed to play 80+ minutes regularly to accumulate consistent points.

  • Prioritize quality over fixtures: Focus on top-quality players rather than those with just favorable short-term fixtures.

  • Use an early Wild Card wisely: Playing an early Wild Card can stabilize your team and capitalize on initial good performances.

  • Limit defensive transfers: Consider set-and-forget defenders to minimize the need for constant adjustments.

  • Monitor preseason minutes: Preseason playtime can indicate which players have won the manager's trust and are likely to start.

  • Be flexible with fringe players: Adjust less crucial parts of your team based on recent performances and available information.

  • Don't overvalue penalty takers: While penalties are a bonus, focus on overall player quality and consistency.

  • Avoid taking too many risks early on: Early in the season, rely on more secure picks to prevent team instability.

  • Balance budget allocation: Allocate funds wisely across your team to ensure overall balance and avoid compromising key positions.

  • Experiment with early chip usage: Trying chips like Bench Boost or Triple Captain early on can provide a points boost and set a positive tone for the season.

  • Stay detached from social media: Avoid social media influences to maintain mental well-being and prevent second-guessing decisions.

  • Use Triple Captain strategically: Triple Captain is more reliable and impactful than Bench Boost due to its potential for high returns.

  • Wild Card later for more info: Using the Wild Card around game week 5 provides more information and stability.

  • Balance risky picks with safe options: Allow one risky pick if necessary, but avoid overloading on them to maintain team stability.

  • Enjoy the game and community: Engaging in discussions and staying relaxed about performance enhances the FPL experience.

  • Balance FPL with personal life: Keep FPL in perspective and ensure it remains a fun and enjoyable part of your life without taking over.

🌚 Conclusion

Trust your instincts, avoid early hits, and enjoy the game. Use early wildcards wisely, invest in reliable players, and balance your budget. Stay detached from social media and keep FPL fun and balanced with your personal life.

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In-Depth

Worried about missing something? This section includes all the Key Ideas and Lessons Learnt from the Podcast Episode. We've ensured nothing is skipped or missed.

All Key Ideas

FML FPL Podcast Highlights

  • Walsh and Lateriser (LR) have an annual tradition of catching up before game week 1 of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) season.
  • LR listens to every episode of the FML FPL podcast, including preseason episodes.
  • LR is a Manchester United fan and acknowledges the grief the club receives on the podcast.
  • Both Walsh and LR had a decent second half of the last season in FPL, with LR playing his own game and not following the popular picks.
  • Walsh admits to struggling when trying to follow the template in FPL and often takes hits early in the season.

Fantasy Football Strategies

  • The second half of the season is too contextual to take specific heuristics away from it.
  • Captaining Haaland less and viewing him as a 'flat track bully' might provide an edge.
  • A more relaxed, chilled-out approach to playing the game seemed effective.
  • Following obvious choices and questioning non-obvious ones emerged as a strategy.
  • Pushing more chips into informed decisions rather than diversifying could be advantageous.
  • Success can come down to small margins and getting a few more decisions right.
  • Comparing your own process and identifying personal mistakes and correct decisions is crucial.

Podcast and Fantasy Premier League Strategies

  • The speaker reflects on listening back to their own podcast episodes and making changes based on past insights
  • The importance of having an eighth attacker in Fantasy Premier League to avoid emergency moves
  • Discussion on the impact of the new five-sub rule on team strategy
  • The principle of not rushing into using a transfer move due to injuries or uncertainties
  • The strategy of planning for a wildcard early in the season, around game weeks four to six

Fantasy Football Strategies

  • Wild Card early to avoid a bigger gap with well-performing teams
  • Saving the Wild Card until later has less value now
  • Aggressive play by Wild Carding early for a stable team
  • Different approaches to using the Wild Card: some prefer planning, others use it when needed
  • Poro is a key defender due to being out of position and taking corners
  • Clean sheets are now a greater currency than attacking returns for defenders
  • Good defenders remain valuable despite changes in the bonus point system

Football Team Strategy Considerations

  • Considering spending significantly on defense, with Trent or Guard as potential picks
  • Munoz is crucial for the team, praised for his versatility and high performance
  • No clear replacement for Munoz if he's unavailable; team might need to play differently
  • Importance of setting non-negotiable players in the FPL team to avoid overthinking
  • Debating between Trent and Guardiol as a premium defender choice
  • Considering options for a goalkeeper, with a focus on team fixtures and performance
  • Skepticism about Forest’s defense despite good fixtures and XG per shot conceded stats

Football Team Analysis

  • Keepers were the worst in the league for preventing goals despite a high volume of shots
  • The team needs a good keeper to improve
  • The midfield and defense players are promising
  • Speculation about a player's potential transfer to Newcastle
  • The club respects players' wishes to move if they want to, with a good relationship with players
  • The club is compared to Dortmund for developing young talent and respecting their career moves
  • Discussion about whether Henderson or Johnstone will be the first-choice goalkeeper based on preseason performance
  • Confident about clean sheet prospects against West Ham and Leicester at home
  • Certain players are non-negotiable in the team selection
  • Preseason performances are influencing final team decisions

Fantasy Premier League Considerations

  • Importance of considering player minutes when making Fantasy Premier League picks
  • Discussion on the uncertainty of minutes for players like Doku and Jota
  • The concept of balancing the team with 'nailed' players and punts
  • The idea of committing to an early wildcard strategy
  • The risk-reward assessment for selecting players with high ceilings but uncertain minutes

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Avoid picking low-percentage players early in the season to prevent frequent hits
  • Go with your gut feelings early on and adjust during the wildcard
  • Gordon is considered a legit pick with good fixtures
  • Concerns about preseason minutes for new players, but not for established ones like Gordon
  • Bumo is a strong pick if Tony leaves, and he’s on set pieces
  • Fixture difficulty shouldn't always dictate player choice if they are considered top picks

Fantasy Football Strategy Considerations

  • There is a consideration of player performance over the first few game weeks for strategic early wildcard use
  • Uncertainty around Trent Alexander-Arnold's value due to his price and fitting him into the budget
  • Watkins' potential penalty duties could make him a highly valuable forward
  • The importance of budget allocation to allow flexibility for bringing in key players like Watkins or Trent
  • The debate over keeping cheaper third forwards to afford premium players
  • The significance of upcoming fixtures in deciding which players to include in the team
  • The strategy of having a flexible defense budget to potentially include premium defenders

Fantasy Premier League Player Selection Insights

  • Monise at 6 million is considered better value than any 6 million midfielder
  • Concerns about Monise's value after game week three due to Fulham's fixture run
  • Decisions around players like Monise and Watkins are difficult and need to be made decisively
  • The value of not starting with certain players due to potential future transfers
  • The importance of picking players you like for your team
  • The challenge of balancing personal preference and FPL effectiveness in player selection
  • The struggle to start the season well and the impact on overall ranking

Speaker's FPL Strategy and Opinions

  • The speaker intends to bench boost in game week 1 and triple captain Haaland in game week 2, aiming for a strong start
  • The speaker wants to deviate from usual strategies and experiment with using chips early in the season
  • The speaker is curious about the impact of a strong start even if it means potential future drawbacks
  • The speaker criticizes the conventional approach to FPL, expressing frustration with certain rules and the bonus point system
  • The speaker appreciates being distanced from the broader FPL community, believing it might positively affect mental well-being
  • The speaker is influenced by advice from others, such as a Villa fan regarding player selection
  • Concerns about the uncertainty of player performances in game week 1 are acknowledged

Fantasy Football Strategy Considerations

  • Uncertainty about key players and formations for Liverpool, Chelsea, and Brighton due to new managers
  • Bench boost strategy involves lower-tier players whose performance isn't significantly affected by top teams' form
  • Overemphasis on the value of chips like bench boost and triple captaincy
  • Psychological impact of early-season performance on overall strategy
  • Hidden costs of planning for bench boost can outweigh its benefits
  • Personal experiences with triple captaincy influencing strategy decisions

Fantasy Football Strategy Discussion Points

  • Triple Captain is considered a more valuable chip than Bench Boost
  • The effectiveness of Bench Boost can vary widely and heavily depends on luck
  • The uncertainty of player minutes late in the season due to Champions League involvement
  • The potential impact of not owning high-performing players like Mo Salah
  • Discussion on 4.5 million defenders and their potential value
  • Concerns about Everton's defense due to player fitness and changes
  • Doubts about Burn's and Leicester's defensive options
  • Mention of potential 4.5 million defender picks like Dunk, Palace's options, Anthony Robinson, and NFO's players
  • Consideration of spreading funds across multiple 4.5 million defenders

Player Analysis and Strategy

  • Barco is viewed as a valuable pick due to his potential, including taking corners and being a set-piece asset.
  • Kamada is liked but considered potentially lightweight for FPL, with concerns about his shot numbers and role.
  • Mina is seen as having a higher potential upside than Kamada with brace potential, though riskier in terms of starting.
  • Practicality of starting picks like Kamada who are steady and reliable versus punting on higher risk/reward players like Mina.
  • Discussion on the impact of players blanking and price drops, and how that affects team strategy and transfers.

Fantasy Premier League Tips

  • Using a wildcard early, such as in game week 3, might be too chaotic since there isn't enough information yet.
  • Instead of risky picks, it's better to choose players with reliable floor points early in the season.
  • Ahmad's potential playtime at Manchester United is uncertain, making him a risky pick.
  • Morgan Rogers is considered a strong pick for game week 1 due to his preseason form and last year's performance.
  • Felix's potential transfer to Villa could significantly impact Rogers' viability as a pick.
  • Gard's (Guardiola's) tactics with certain players may create uncertainty in their positions, but some players still offer high floor points due to set pieces and team control.
  • The speaker is focusing more on enjoying the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game rather than stressing about performance.

Speaker's Preferences and Activities

  • The speaker prefers playing Fantasy Premier League (FPL) based on football knowledge rather than relying solely on statistical reviews
  • The speaker has had two seasons outside of the top 100K but remains relaxed about it
  • The speaker has set high personal goals, aiming for a third top 100 finish in FPL before considering retirement
  • The speaker enjoys participating in a weekly podcast, which evolved naturally from frequent football discussions during the COVID-19 lockdown
  • The podcast team members are geographically dispersed, with one in London and another in Chennai, India

All Lessons Learnt

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Avoid relying solely on the template at the start: Trying to stick too closely to the template from game week one can backfire. If you're not comfortable with that strategy, it's better to follow your own instincts.
  • Be cautious with early hits: Taking early hits for players who had one good game can lead to a nosedive in performance. It's often better to wait and see how players perform consistently.
  • Playing without pressure can improve performance: Both participants found that when they weren't trying too hard or felt less pressure, their performance improved. Relax and enjoy the game more.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Captain Haaland less often: Treat Haaland as a flat-track bully and avoid captaining him in tougher fixtures to maximize points.
  • Don't try too hard: Play the game with a relaxed attitude, do the obvious move when it makes sense, and don't be different just for the sake of it.
  • Push more chips in on favorable teams: Once you have enough information, invest more heavily in teams and players you believe in rather than diversifying too much.
  • Focus on smaller margins: Realize that small margins, like a few points in defense or midfield, can significantly impact your overall score.
  • Compare to your own process: Instead of comparing your season to others', look back at your own decision-making to identify where you went right or wrong and adjust accordingly.

Football Squad Tips

  • Have an eighth attacker - Ensure you have a reliable eighth attacker on your squad to avoid emergency transfers if a player gets injured.
  • Adapt to the five sub rule - The new five substitution rule supports having an eighth attacker and allows more flexibility without panic moves.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Wild Card early can be beneficial - Playing aggressively with an early Wild Card might be advantageous because it allows you to stabilize your team sooner and capitalize on initial good performances.
  • Avoid overplanning Wild Cards - Instead of planning extensively for a Wild Card, use it when necessary. This approach can prevent getting into trouble with overly complex strategies.
  • Consider having set-and-forget defenders - Limiting transfers in defense by having three set defenders can be effective, reducing the need for constant adjustments.
  • Don’t overthink player choices - Sometimes it’s better to go with straightforward choices even if they seem obvious, like choosing Pedro Porro for his attacking threat and potential returns despite doubts.
  • Clean sheets are a valuable currency - Clean sheets might be more significant than attacking returns for defenders due to changes in the bonus point system, making reliable defenders more valuable.
  • Good defenders are still worth investing in - Despite changes in the bonus system, good defenders remain valuable and shouldn't be overlooked in favor of cheaper, less reliable options.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Set and stick to non-negotiable players: Identify five or six key players you trust and avoid excessive tinkering to prevent clouded judgment from new information.
  • Choose a premium defender wisely: Decide between Trent or Guardal based on your overall team balance and budget.
  • Be cautious with team selection based on fixtures: Good fixtures don't always guarantee clean sheets, especially for teams like Forest, who might still concede despite favorable schedules.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Ensure you have a good keeper - A high volume of shots can lead to more saves, but without a good keeper, it won't prevent goals effectively.
  • Value good player relationships - Maintaining good relationships with players can lead to a more positive club environment and potentially honor transfer requests respectfully.
  • Monitor preseason minutes for selection clues - Preseason minutes can indicate which players have won the trust of the manager and are likely to start.
  • Prioritize non-negotiable players - Identify core players who are essential to your team and ensure they are included in the lineup.
  • Be flexible with fringe and edge players - Be open to adjusting the less crucial parts of your team as needed based on recent performances and available information.
  • Assess player performance in preseason games - Preseason performance can help determine the readiness and potential of players, especially new signings or less known players.
  • Don't overvalue penalty takers - While penalties are a bonus, focusing solely on penalty takers can be misleading. Trust and pick players you believe in.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Prioritize players with guaranteed minutes: Choosing players who are certain to play 80+ minutes regularly can accumulate points over the season.
  • Avoid the 'minutes trap': Be cautious about picking exciting new players like Doku if their playing time is uncertain.
  • Balance risk-taking with secure picks: If you want to take a gamble on a player like Jota, ensure the rest of your team consists of nailed-on starters to minimize risk.
  • Consider early wild card strategy: If committing to an early wildcard, you can afford to take short-term punts on players, knowing you can quickly adjust your team.
  • Wait for players to become first choice: Hold off on picking potentially high-scoring players until they are confirmed as regular starters for their teams.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Avoid taking too many risks early on: Early in the season, don't rely heavily on low-probability picks (like 25% chance of success players) as it will lead to frequent hits and team instability.
  • Trust your instincts initially: In the early weeks, choose players based on your gut feeling rather than focusing too much on ownership percentages or stats.
  • Consider long-term fixtures and potential: Players like Gordon, who show promise and have good fixtures, are worth considering despite not being the finished article.
  • Preseason minutes matter for new players: Be cautious with new signings or players with limited preseason minutes as their role and fitness are uncertain.
  • Established players are safer bets: Players who are integral to their teams and understand the system (e.g., Gordon) are more reliable and less risky.
  • Flexibility with midfield budget: Have a flexible approach to midfield budget spots, considering different combinations of players in similar price ranges based on form and fixtures.
  • Quality over fixtures: Prioritize players who are among the best picks in the game over those with favorable short-term fixtures, as their quality will shine through tough matches.

Fantasy Football Strategy Tips

  • Focus on the first five games when assessing player potential - Prioritize players with favorable fixtures in the initial game weeks to optimize early performance.
  • Consider wildcard flexibility - Plan for an early wildcard to address unexpected performances and fixture changes.
  • Monitor penalty takers (pens) - Players on penalties significantly increase their value, so keep an eye on potential penalty takers like Watkins.
  • Balance budget allocations - Ensure a balanced budget that can accommodate key players like Trent Alexander-Arnold without severely compromising other positions.
  • Prepare for fixture swings - Be ready to adjust your team based on upcoming fixture difficulty, especially for players with favorable runs, like Watkins from Gameweek 3.
  • Have a flexible team structure - Maintain flexibility in team selection to allow for easy adjustments based on player form and fixture changes.

Fantasy Premier League Tips

  • Pick players you feel confident in: Trust your gut and choose players you genuinely like and believe in, even if they aren't the obvious best picks.
  • Consider fixture runs and team strength: Be wary of players from weaker teams, even if they have good early fixtures, as their value might drop later.
  • Be flexible with your budget allocation: Allocating funds wisely, like opting for a cheaper player to strengthen other areas, can improve your overall team balance.
  • Starting well is crucial: A strong start in the early game weeks can set the tone for the rest of the season, so focus on a solid initial team setup.
  • Avoid bias against players you dislike: Don't let personal biases against certain players prevent you from picking them if they are strong FPL options.

Fantasy Football Strategies

  • Experiment with early chip usage - Trying bench boost in Gameweek 1 and triple captaining in Gameweek 2 can provide an early points boost and a different start to the season.
  • Break away from conventional approaches - Not sticking to the standard strategies and trying new things can yield different results and insights.
  • Avoid being influenced by social media - Distance from Twitter and the community can help maintain mental well-being and prevent second-guessing decisions.
  • Consider player uncertainty - Be mindful of players like Rogers, who may start initially but have uncertain long-term prospects.
  • Early bench boost risks - Gameweek 1 bench boost involves a lot of guessing due to limited information about player form and team dynamics.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Rely on known information early in the season - At the start of the season, many variables are uncertain (e.g., new managers and player roles), so base decisions on what is known rather than speculating.
  • Bench boost isn't affected by top teams' performance - Bench boost typically involves your weakest players, so understanding the performance of teams like Liverpool or Chelsea is less relevant for this chip.
  • Early bench boost can be psychologically beneficial - Using bench boost early can yield points when they are most needed, providing a morale boost and potentially setting a positive psychological tone for the season.
  • Setting up for bench boost can be costly - Planning transfers far in advance to optimize a future bench boost can lead to missed points and flexibility loss.
  • Triple captaincy chip should be used strategically - The triple captaincy chip can be powerful when used on a less popular but high-potential player, potentially flipping standings in a mini-league.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Triple Captain is more valuable than Bench Boost: Hitting high points on Bench Boost is rare and requires a lot of luck, making Triple Captain a more reliable chip.
  • Late-season risks with top players: Players from top teams in Champions League may have reduced minutes late in the season, affecting their fantasy performance.
  • Bench Boost in Game Week 1 can be a good start: Using Bench Boost early can set a solid foundation for the season, even if the outcome isn't optimal.
  • Monitor Everton's defensive lineup: Check the fitness and playing status of Everton defenders before making selections, as their lineup has been inconsistent.
  • Avoid Everton defenders if Michael Keane plays: Michael Keane’s presence in the lineup is a negative indicator for Everton’s defensive reliability.
  • Burn could be a trap: Be cautious with selecting Burn as a defender due to concerns about his potential performance.
  • Consider team fixtures and overall strength: When choosing defenders, prioritize those from stronger teams with favorable fixtures, like Palace’s options or Brighton’s Dunk.
  • Be flexible with 4.5 defenders: It’s practical to rotate or adjust 4.5 defenders based on emerging team news and fixtures.

Fantasy Football Tips

  • Defenders on set pieces are valuable: Defenders like Barco who take corners can provide additional points through assists, making them worth the investment.
  • Punts on cheap defenders are low risk: Investing in a four million defender like Barco has minimal downside since they can be benched or replaced during a wildcard if they don't perform.
  • Higher floor players can reduce risks: Choosing reliable players like Kamada, who consistently play and earn points, can prevent early-season issues and reduce the need for immediate transfers.
  • Brace potential in attackers is crucial: Players like Mina, who have the potential for multiple returns in a game, are more valuable than those unlikely to achieve this, like Kamada.
  • Early wildcards can mitigate risks of punts: Starting with high-potential players and using a wildcard after a few game weeks can help adjust the team based on initial performances.

Fantasy Premier League Tips

  • Wild Card later for more information: Using the Wild Card around game week 5 is better than earlier because it provides more information and less chaos.
  • Balance FY picks with safe options: Allow yourself one FY pick if there's no solid floor pick at that price, but avoid overloading on risky players.
  • Wait before jumping on new players: For emerging players like Ahmad, wait for consistent performance over a few weeks before adding them to your team.
  • Consider preseason performance and manager trust: Players like Morgan Rogers who performed well against Premier League opposition and have manager confidence are worth considering.
  • Be cautious with potential transfers: Keep an eye on transfer news, like potential signings that could impact player selection, e.g., Felix joining Villa would decrease Rogers' appeal.
  • High-floor picks are safer: Players like Gard with a high floor and set-piece threat, especially from strong teams like City, provide a safer option even if not playing in an optimal position.
  • Know and enjoy your play style: Detaching from the pressure of doing well and sticking to a play style you enjoy leads to a more fulfilling FPL experience.

Fantasy Premier League Tips

  • Play based on football knowledge, not just stats - While stats can be a sanity check, relying on football knowledge can be more enjoyable and effective.
  • Stay relaxed about performance - Accept that poor seasons happen and it’s all part of the game; don’t stress too much about rankings.
  • Set high but realistic goals - Aim for ambitious targets like finishing in the top 100, but be okay with not hitting them every time.
  • Enjoy the process and community - Engaging in regular discussions and podcasts can enhance the experience and make it more enjoyable.
  • Balance personal life and FPL - It’s important to have fun with FPL without letting it take over your life; keep it in perspective.

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